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Re: 2019-20 UEFA Champions League

Posted: Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:54 pm
by Shoco
seand wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:46 pm
shep wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2019 12:31 pm
Dundalk are 8/5 with PP to qualify. You'd need to be sticking at least €100 to cover the price of your flight alone!!
That makes no sense,if your bet wins then you wouldn’t be going to Bratislava!!! We would be likely going to Cyprus !!!
[/quote]

It makes sense, it's hedging. Book flights to Bratislava now and bet on Dundalk to win. If Dundalk lose you've got cheaper flights to Bratislava, if Dundalk win you've covered the cost of non-refundable flights.
[/quote]

And if we lose and the fixture is reversed due to tallaght not being available?

Re: 2019-20 UEFA Champions League

Posted: Tue Jul 23, 2019 11:53 pm
by oldfogey
Shoco wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:54 pm
seand wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2019 2:46 pm
shep wrote:
Tue Jul 23, 2019 12:31 pm
Dundalk are 8/5 with PP to qualify. You'd need to be sticking at least €100 to cover the price of your flight alone!!
That makes no sense,if your bet wins then you wouldn’t be going to Bratislava!!! We would be likely going to Cyprus !!!
It makes sense, it's hedging. Book flights to Bratislava now and bet on Dundalk to win. If Dundalk lose you've got cheaper flights to Bratislava, if Dundalk win you've covered the cost of non-refundable flights.
[/quote]

And if we lose and the fixture is reversed due to tallaght not being available?
[/quote]

If you booked your flight on the basis of the tie being reversed Rovers would (try to) deliberately lose so Tallaght was available and anyway your bet was worthless because you tried to back each way.🙊

Re: 2019-20 UEFA Champions League

Posted: Wed Jul 24, 2019 8:46 am
by seand
I'm not the one doing the hedging here, but I'd have thought the hedger would wait a day or two until the third round dates are fixed and then bet on Dundalk to be in the Champions League while booking moderately priced flights to Bratislava. I won't be doing that though. I'll try and get to Bratislava if the prices are ok once we are certain who we're playing and when.

Champions League news..... APOEL won 1-0 at Sutjeska last night, so the hope of an upset there looks remote.

Re: 2019-20 UEFA Champions League

Posted: Fri Jul 26, 2019 12:47 pm
by seand
Slovan Bratislava only beat Feronikeli 2-1 at home on Wednesday in the Europa League. They should go through, but no guarantee, so if we drop in the EL it could be Kosovo.

Meanwhile, our coefficient next season will be a minimum 8.5 (up from 7), we'd need to get to the group stage to have a good chance of being seeded in the CL second round draw next season, if we get there! This year seems to have been very high quality clubs in the CL qualifying rounds, it took a coefficient of over 14 to be seeded in the second round. Last season it was about 10.
You can track our ranking and the ranking of every other club in Europe(!) here:
https://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/ue ... k2020.html
Clubs in blue are still active in Europe.

Interesting thing here is that we're up to 126 in Europe. The problem we had this year, and which will always be a problem in the CL, is that the same few clubs keep winning their leagues, so the coefficient required to be seeded even in the early rounds is very high. We're ranked ahead of every club in Poland except Legia, all Bulgaria except Ludogorets, all Azerbaijan except Qarabag, all Slovenia except Maribor, all Belarus except BATE but chances are all five of those will qualify again next year.

Re: 2019-20 UEFA Champions League

Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:53 pm
by Ezeikial
It's a little clearer

Sloven Bratislava win 2-0 away to Feronikelli to progress 4-1 on aggregate

APOEL 2-0 up at half time at home to Sutjeska (3-0 on aggregate)

Re: 2019-20 UEFA Champions League

Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:54 pm
by Ezeikial
So it's either Cyprus away next Tuesday or Bratislava on Wednesday

Re: 2019-20 UEFA Champions League

Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:48 pm
by Shoco
Flights to Bratislava and Vienna are a bit on the expensive side, even Budapest is expensive if you wanted to get the train up. Has anyone looked up any other possible routes?

Re: 2019-20 UEFA Champions League

Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:02 pm
by Ezeikial
Shoco wrote:
Tue Jul 30, 2019 8:48 pm
Flights to Bratislava and Vienna are a bit on the expensive side, even Budapest is expensive if you wanted to get the train up. Has anyone looked up any other possible routes?
There'll be no craic in Bratislava. Nicosia is the hip place for August

Re: 2019-20 UEFA Champions League

Posted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 9:33 pm
by Shoco
I admire your confidence

Re: 2019-20 UEFA Champions League

Posted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:50 am
by colymull
When is the draw for the next round? If we were to win tonight and then lose to Apoel, is there a chance we could get drawn against the winners of Qarabag/Bratislava? Unlikely and extremely unlucky but is it a possibility?

Re: 2019-20 UEFA Champions League

Posted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:36 am
by Sneachta
I thought the same with Riga but perhaps the expert analysis from seand could shed some light on that.

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Re: 2019-20 UEFA Champions League

Posted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:54 am
by seand
colymull wrote:
Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:50 am
When is the draw for the next round? If we were to win tonight and then lose to Apoel, is there a chance we could get drawn against the winners of Qarabag/Bratislava? Unlikely and extremely unlucky but is it a possibility?
I was wondering that. I think it's unlikely but possible. It doesn't look like CL opponents are necessarily kept apart in the EL. So while Dundalk/Qarabag were in a different group to Riga/Piast in the draw, we were in the same group s Qarabag's CL opponents Partizani. So in theory Qarabag could have drawn Partizani again. (Similarly Celtic/Kalju could have drawn Sarajevo and Linfield's opponents HB could have drawn HJK again. But none of those draws came out. I don't think any CL clubs can potentially meet again in round 3 of the EL this season, and I don't think it happened at all last season, but it does look possible).