2017-18 UEFA Champions League

[seand]

Ah, my favourite new topic of the year!

In case it escaped your attention Dundalk are League of Ireland champions and have qualified for next season's Champions League. The big question is will be we seeded in the second qualifying round? The answer is maybe. It's extremely unlikely if lose our next 3 Europa League games. 1 draw will give us a chance, 1 win or 2 draws will probably get us over the line and seeded.

Like last year there will be 34 teams in the second qualifying round, so we need to be ranked ahead of 17 other teams to be seeded. As it stands we will be ranked ahead of the 4 first round qualifiers, whoever they are (and likely to include TNS). We'll also be ranked ahead of the champions of Northern Ireland, Macedonia, Lux, Latvia, Montenegro, Bosnia, Finland (IFK Mariehamn) and Georgia. That's 12 teams in the bag. Another point would push us ahead of the champions of Iceland (FH), Lithuania (almost certainly Zalgiris) and Albania (assuming it's Skenderbeu- we're already ranked ahead of all other Albanian teams). In that case you're hoping for a couple of other surprise league titles for lesser lights in other countries. e.g. next up for decision is Sweden where it'd be great to see Norrkopping (who we'd be ranked ahead of) top Malmo (who'd we'd be ranked behind). They've 4 points to make up in 3 games though

[seand]

Two important links for tracking all this. Wikipedia is surprisingly good:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%8 ... ons_League

And Bert Kassies is a bloomin' legend:
http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uef ... k2017.html (click around Bert's website for lots and lots of detail)

[bigalan]

Great work and info Seand. I wouldnt know where to start!

[seand]

Astana confirmed in Kazakhstan, which is a pity, because Kairat would have been unseeded. However looking around I'm pretty confident 1 more point in the group will be enough to get us seeded.

edit: And Malmo confirmed as champions in Sweden which is not what we wanted either. Malmo will be seeded (Norrkopping would not have been)

[oldfogey]

Always interesting to see if we could meet old foes again.

FH already clinched their league at the start of the month

Bate 15 points ahead with 4 games left so they'll be back.

Legia Warsaw are languishing in 8th with 16 points from 13 games.

AZ not doing so good either. Sitting in 6th after 10 games, 12 points off the lead.

Maccabi are joint top but it's early days in Israel. They'll be midway through their league at the beginning of December.

Zenit are joint top as well but were dumped out of the cup tonight (4-0) away to a midtable side. 2 reds on the night so temperament issues there.

[grass]

Speaking of old foes,
Vasas (European Cup 1967/68) are 5 points clear at the top of the Hungarian league.
Early days though,13/33 played but I think they would be unseeded ,if they hang on.

[Louth4sam]

I was sure we were already seeded but made a rookie error. Forgot to add a point to the coefficients of some of our rivals that had been in the Champions league this year.

As mentioned earlier, we need fresh teams to win their leagues rather than the likes of FH who win every year and keep their coefficient ticking over even when they don't get through a round

[seand]

Time for a disappointing update..... out coefficient on 5.815 would usually be enough for seeding, but almost certainly won't be next season. 34 teams in round two, so we need to be ranked ahead of 17 other teams to be seeded.

We are already ranked ahead of these 12: the champions of Finland, Latvia, Georgia, Bosnia, Macedonia, Lux, Montenegro, NI and the 4 first round qualifiers.

We need to finish ahead of another 5 to be seeded. It looks very unlikely.

We are ranked behind the champions of (6): Belarus, Sweden, Kaz, Norway, Iceland, Lithuania
We're 99% likely to be behind the champions of (5): Israel, Scotland, Denmark, Azer, Serbia
We're 90% likely to be behind the champions of (4): Croatia, Slovakia, Cyprus, Bulgaria

So we need 5 out of these 6 scenarios:
Austria: need Rheindorf Altach to win. They are top but would be a massive surprise if they won.
Albania: anyone but Skenderbeu to win (Skenderbeu 2 points off the top)
Moldova: anyone but Sheriff (Sheriff top by a point)
Poland: Current top 2 would both be unseeded, but Legia are on the charge, 7 points off
Slovenia: anyone but Maribor who are currently joint top
Hungary: anyone but Videoton (or struggling Debrecen)- Videoton 1 pt off the top

There's a good chance that 2 or 3 of those could come off, but 5 out of 6 looks a very long shot

[oldfogey]

Anyone got a spare seat at their Christmas party? This man needs to get out more.

Seriously, well done. Anorak that I am, I'm just jealous I didn't get there first.

[seand]

Anyone got a spare seat at their Christmas party? This an needs to get out more.

Seriously, well done. Anorak that I am, I'm just jealous I didn't get there first.

Shhh oldfogey, I'm doing this on work time ;)

[robml88]

Time for a disappointing update..... out coefficient on 5.815 would usually be enough for seeding, but almost certainly won't be next season. 34 teams in round two, so we need to be ranked ahead of 17 other teams to be seeded.

We are already ranked ahead of these 12: the champions of Finland, Latvia, Georgia, Bosnia, Macedonia, Lux, Montenegro, NI and the 4 first round qualifiers.

We need to finish ahead of another 5 to be seeded. It looks very unlikely.

We are ranked behind the champions of (6): Belarus, Sweden, Kaz, Norway, Iceland, Lithuania
We're 99% likely to be behind the champions of (5): Israel, Scotland, Denmark, Azer, Serbia
We're 90% likely to be behind the champions of (4): Croatia, Slovakia, Cyprus, Bulgaria

So we need 5 out of these 6 scenarios:
Austria: need Rheindorf Altach to win. They are top but would be a massive surprise if they won.
Albania: anyone but Skenderbeu to win (Skenderbeu 2 points off the top)
Moldova: anyone but Sheriff (Sheriff top by a point)
Poland: Current top 2 would both be unseeded, but Legia are on the charge, 7 points off
Slovenia: anyone but Maribor who are currently joint top
Hungary: anyone but Videoton (or struggling Debrecen)- Videoton 1 pt off the top

There's a good chance that 2 or 3 of those could come off, but 5 out of 6 looks a very long shot

I was actually looking to see would our coefficient be enough today but didn't know where to begin. Thanks for the update.

Looking at those 6 possibilities you mentioned there though, I see Sheriff are actually two points adrift of top spot in Moldova, and the leaders have a game in hand.

It does look ominous in Poland.

[oldfogey]

Anyone got a spare seat at their Christmas party? This an needs to get out more.

Seriously, well done. Anorak that I am, I'm just jealous I didn't get there first.

Shhh oldfogey, I'm doing this on work time ;)

I know. I'm your line manager...........

[niall_hearty2000]

Is it safe to assume that these leagues don't end until next may?

[oldfogey]

Is it safe to assume that these leagues don't end until next may?

Go onto Bert Kassies website and select the Access List for 2017-18. Then select Qualification. This lists every country and the manner in which teams are entered into CL and EL. Where some places are yet to be allocated there is a note indicating league finish and cup final dates.

So Spain is blank, the Swedish Cup is only at QF stage, and all the Irish places are allocated.

Have fun!

[seand]

Is it safe to assume that these leagues don't end until next may?

Yes all those others leagues run until late April/early May. No point really in worrying about it til at least March but the obsessives among us will be tracking it on Wiki and Bert Kassies.

There was a rumour that Kazakh champions Astana were going bust, which would bump us up a place, but I've not heard that recently. Astana are bankrolled by the government, so unless there's a big policy change in the offing they're unlikely to go under any time soon.